"Investing in Carbon Sequestration: The Nitrogen Crisis in The Netherlands" (Job Market Paper) [paper]
This paper examines how a counterfactual carbon payment policy could incentivize Dutch farmers to adopt more sustainable land management practices. The Netherlands faces the dual challenge of achieving net-zero emissions while addressing nitrogen pollution in its nature reserves. Biochar amendments offer a potential solution to both issues. We develop a dynamic optimization model to analyze farmers’ optimal investment in biochar under location and farmer-level heterogeneity. The model admits a unique, saddle-path-stable steady-state solution. To account for heterogeneity, we calibrate the model using a Monte Carlo simulation across the five most common types of agricultural soil. Our results indicate that implementing a carbon payment policy would increase soil organic carbon sequestration by 61% to 80% and result in higher cumulative discounted profits within 8-10 years. Additionally, the policy is projected to increase crop productivity by 12% to 14%, depending on the soil type. By 2050, steady-state investment in biochar amendments reduces ammonia volatilization by 559–673 mol/ha/year, demonstrating strong co-benefits for both carbon and nitrogen management.
"Additionality Constrains Investment in Carbon Sequestration" with Kenneth B. Medlock III [paper] (submitted in npj Sustainable Agriculture)
Additionality is a structural constraint that only recognizes land-based carbon sequestration if it would not have occurred without carbon payments. This discourages large-scale investment because it removes a significant portion of the potential carbon storage asset. Here we examine the effects of replacing the additionality requirement with a carbon asset class on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration on cropland. We construct and calibrate an economic model focused on crop and carbon farming in Texas. Our results indicate that eliminating the additionality constraint and monetizing the SOC pool can significantly increase investment in land management practices. Rather than regulating SOC sequestration through additionality, we propose the creation of a carbon asset class that rewards carbon accumulation resulting from all land management practices. We assume that conventional land management sequesters 12.67 Mg of carbon per hectare. Under a carbon offset price of $150 per Mg of CO₂ with the additionality constraint in place, crop farmers do not sequester any additional carbon by 2050. However, when additionality is replaced with a carbon asset class and farmers receive annuity payments based on their existing carbon stocks, they sequester an additional 41.48 Mg of carbon per hectare by 2050 – a 327.4% increase relative to the original carbon pool. The historically accumulated carbon becomes a source of revenue that incentivizes new investment.
"An Analytical Macroeconomic Model of Natural Capital - the Case of Uganda" with Ted-Loch Temzelides and Charl Jooste [paper]
We develop a methodology to incorporate natural capital into an analytical macro growth framework by deriving an easy-to-implement expression for the Pigouvian subsidy (tax) associated with various types of land conversion. This captures the marginal expected discounted future benefits (losses) resulting from the addition (reduction) in the flow of ecosystem services from, for example, a small addition (reduction) in forested land. To illustrate our analysis, we calibrate our model using data from Uganda and compute a lower bound for the magnitude of the ecosystem subsidy (tax). Introducing such policy tools can lead to more efficient land use, by internalizing the contribution of natural capital that is not captured by market value.
"A Markov transition approach to coal quality-switching behavior in the United States electricity market" with Brandon Garcia
This paper examines whether the stringency of environmental regulation influences fuel quality choices among coal-fired power plants in the United States. Using an empirical Markov model, we analyze how firms dynamically transition between different types of coal over time in response to changing regulatory conditions. The analysis focuses on identifying whether stricter environmental regulations lead firms to adopt cleaner coal inputs, such as refined coal. By modeling firm behavior in a dynamic and heterogeneous regulatory landscape, this study provides new insights into the role of policy in shaping fuel quality decisions in the electricity generation sector.
"A Regime Change Model for Transitioning from Steel to Green Steel"
This study develops a dynamic optimization model to analyze the transition of steel production from traditional coal-based methods to low-carbon "green steel" technologies. Motivated by the significant climate and public health impacts of coal-based steelmaking, the model captures how firms respond to evolving economic and policy conditions. A regime change framework is introduced, in which firms sequentially transition through three production technologies: conventional coal-based steel, hybrid production using electric arc furnaces (EAFs), and ultimately green steel production using hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and carbon nanotubes (CNT) produced via methane pyrolysis. The model incorporates resource depletion, technological progress, and policy instruments like carbon pricing and subsidies to study the optimal timing and conditions under which firms switch regimes. This work contributes to the literature on resource economics, energy transitions, and sustainable industrial production, offering new insights into the economic drivers of decarbonization in the steel sector.
"Current Technologies Fall Short: The High Cost of Achieving Net-Zero" with Kenneth B. Medlock III
We construct a global marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) using Project Drawdown data, integrating nature-based and engineered mitigation options across energy, transport, and industry. The analysis reveals that existing technologies alone cannot achieve net-zero targets, underscoring the need for combined mitigation and adaptation strategies. Our goal is to extend this framework to a generalized MACC that incorporates adaptation measures alongside abatement, offering policymakers a unified tool for evaluating climate investment portfolios.
In opdracht van de provincie Noord-Holland en Koninklijke Bouwend Nederland is een analyse uitgevoerd van de kansen om industrieel, flexibel en demontabel bouwen (IFD) toe te passen bij de infrastructuuropgaven van provincies en gemeenten in de komende decennia. Daarbij is een raming gemaakt van de potentie van IFD en van de maatschappelijke baten die IFD kan opleveren. De analyse richt zich primair op civiele kunstwerken waar de komende jaren sprake is van een omvangrijke vervangings- en renovatieopgave. Op basis van de analyse worden kansrijke maatregelen en acties opgesteld die opdrachtgevers en opdrachtnemers samen met andere actoren op de inframarkt kunnen nemen om het IFD-potentieel te realiseren.
In het eerste halfjaar van 2020 is het aantal zzp’ers licht gestegen (3%-punt) ten opzichte van het tweede halfjaar van 2019, na een lichte daling van 2% in het tweede halfjaar van 2019. De grootste toename is in de grond-, water- en wegenbouw, waar het aandeel met 5% is gestegen. De uurtarieven zijn in het eerste halfjaar van 2020 licht gestegen. Het aantal gewerkte uren is gedaald met bijna anderhalf uur per week, terwijl het aantal gewerkte weken per halfjaar met één week is gestegen. Hierdoor is het gemiddelde maandelijkse bruto inkomen licht gestegen (€ 50) naar € 6.400. Daarnaast is de orderportefeuille met twee weken gedaald. Toch verwacht ruim 60% van de zzp’ers dat de markt gelijk zal blijven.
"Verkiezingsprogramma’s tegen het licht: de woningmarkt" with Martin Koning, Bram Bossink, Jeffrey Kok, and Vera Uunk [report]
Het EIB heeft de verkiezingsprogramma’s van acht politieke partijen verkend op het terrein van de woningmarkt. Doel van de publicatie van het EIB is om vooral aan de hand van de overeenkomsten tussen de partijen na te gaan welk woningmarktbeleid kansrijk lijkt om te landen in het Regeerakkoord en daarmee in het beleid voor de komende jaren. Uiteraard is ook aandacht besteed aan verschillen tussen de partijen, maar er is geen analyse gemaakt van de verwachte effecten die ontstaan bij uitvoering van de individuele partijprogramma’s.